i would tell you, i do think the chinese economy in particular, the export economy, is structurally broken. i think that's a big change. i've been going to china since 1995. i think there's a fundamental shift in what's going on. we saw that in the caterpillar numbers. you saw that in the federal express numbers. some people think that's cyclical. i think there's prob a m secular component to it. >> this is a very important point you're making because china's growth has been driven by the export economy. you're saying that it's in trouble, it's broken. >> i'm not saying it's broken. i'm saying there's a transition going on towards consumption exporting to europe and real estate are no longer going to be their drivers nap will probably create more volatility than we've had in the past. >> how easy is it to expect this transition? you're buying in the consumer space. >> yes, and you have the transition of the government. one of the other big messages we picked up over there, particularly in i understondia, emerging market central banks, they're very concerned about what the traditional bank